Uzbekistan (1) -- Analyses -- 2010

More about the company and Gulnara Karimova

20.05.2010

While there’s plenty of smoke, there’s no way officially to report a fire – yet. Efforts by EurasiaNet.org to get a representative at the company’s Swiss headquarters to comment on the situation did not succeed. A receptionist at Zeromax’s office in Tashkent said the firm’s local press spokesman was “on vacation.”
Even so, it is clear that Zeromax is no longer on the government’s good side. The real question is why? Close observers of Uzbekistan generally believe that Zeromax’s problems are rooted in politics. But there are differing theories as to who is turning the screws on the company.
Djalalov’s detention suggests that a behind-the-scenes struggle among Uzbek oligarchs is playing out, some analysts say. President Karimov himself may have precipitated this clash of economic titans by announcing in late 2009 that there was no room for oligarchs in Uzbek society.
Some analysts in Central Asia say they keep hearing reports that the move against Djalalov and Zeromax is being orchestrated by Prime Minister Shavkat Mirziyaev and National Security Services chairman Rustam Inoyatov.
Gulnara Karimova, daughter of Uzbek President Islam Karimov, has publicly denied any connection with "Zeromax". But it has been widely reported that she has, or at least had a controlling interest in the firm.
In recent years, speculation mounted that she was being groomed to succeed her father, who has ruled Uzbekistan since the Soviet collapse in 1991. But Zeromax’s woes seem to upset such a succession scenario. A few experts believe Gulnara has simply lost interest in having the top political job in Tashkent, and would prefer to maintain a jet-setting lifestyle, and promote her luxury clothing and jewelry lines under the Guli brand. (Karimova also previously persued a singing career under the stage name GooGoosha.)
Widely seen among Uzbek elites as a divisive figure in Tashkent, Gulnara of late has appeared to be been living it up in Europe - her interest ever more focused on activities in Madrid, Spain, where she serves as Uzbekistan’s ambassador.
A source who is familiar with the inner workings of Uzbekistan’s business elite, suggested Gulnara decided to part ways with Zeromax because it had outlived its usefulness to her. As an arch-realist, she may have decided that, as a woman in an traditional society like Uzbekistan’s, the challenges involved in succeeding her father were too great, and that she would be better off securing gains already made, and content with living a comfortable life. Given that Zeromax was widely seen as a vehicle for the advancement of Gulnara’s budding political career, it could be easily sacrificed.

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