Belarus (3) -- Analyses-- January-March 2006

Belarus - political tension

29.03.2006

Nearly a week into protests set off by a disputed election that handed Lukashenko a third term, opposition leader Alexander Milinkevich told a crowd of thousands Saturday that momentum was growing to bring democracy to Belarus. But he acknowledged that it would take some time, and put an end to immediate tensions by asking his supporters to come to another big rally in a month. Two days of confrontation and wildly swinging emotions left two huge questions for the country: How much dissent are the authorities willing to allow and how much support does the opposition have? Milinkevich spoke at an impromptu rally held at a Minsk park after police shoved back protesters from the central city square where they had intended to gather. Police did not interfere with the park rally that attracted around 7,000 people — raising hopes that security forces’ long history of violence against dissenters was softening. But authorities showed their tolerance had distinct limits after rally participants tried to march to a jail where some of the hundreds of people arrested over the past week were being held. The European Union decided Friday to punish Lukashenko with “restrictions” that will likely include a travel ban from Europe. The EU decision puts Lukashenko on the same EU blacklist as Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe and Burma’s military leaders, all of whom have a freeze on their European assets and visa bans against them. EU officials said they were drafting plans to expand specific measures, which currently apply only to six top Belarussian officials and had not included Lukashenko. In Washington, White House press secretary Scott McClellan said the United States would join the EU in applying targeted travel restrictions and financial sanctions. The measures, however, seemed unlikely to influence Lukashenko. In a statement late Friday, the Foreign Ministry said the sanctions had “no prospects,” and that Belarus reserved the right to take retaliatory measures. Meanwhile, about 80 pro-Lukashenko youth activists picketed the U.S. Embassy in Minsk for about an hour on Sunday, shouting “Hands off Belarus.” Protesters also picketed the Polish Embassy.

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